INNOVATIVE TRENDS IN MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS PROCESSES UNDER CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL TRANSFORMATION

Abstract

The article examines innovative trends in the development of the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market in 2025–2026 in the context of global transformation of international business. The relevance of the topic is determined by fundamental structural shifts in the global M&A market under the influence of the artificial intelligence technological revolution, transformation of the role of private capital, geopolitical fragmentation, and the unique conditions of the Ukrainian economy during the full-scale war. The results of the study showed that the global M&A market reached $3.0 trillion in 2025 (+31%), but the number of deals continued to decline, indicating capital concentration in fewer but significantly more expensive transactions. A pronounced K-shaped market dynamic was revealed, where growth is driven primarily by megadeals worth over $10 billion, accounting for 42% of the total value of deals. In 2025, 111 transactions worth over $5 billion were announced, a 76% increase compared to the previous year. North America remains the most active region with a 60% share of global M&A activity ($1.9 trillion), while the European market shows stagnation and the Asia-Pacific region is contracting. It has been established that artificial intelligence acts as a dual catalyst for M&A: as a strategic driver of deals and as a tool for their implementation. One-third of the largest corporate deals in 2025 had an AI theme as part of their strategic rationale. The largest technology deals (Google/Wiz – $30 billion, Palo Alto Networks/CyberArk – $25.1 billion, IBM/Confluent – $11 billion) demonstrate a focus on acquiring critical competencies for scaling AI, particularly in cybersecurity, data platforms, and analytics. The dual nature of AI’s impact was revealed: in the short term, the multi-trillion dollar investment cycle in AI infrastructure (data centers, semiconductors, energy facilities) totaling $5.5–8.0 trillion by 2030 may divert capital from M&A, but in the medium term creates the prerequisites for an innovation supercycle. The transformation of the role of private capital in the modern M&A architecture was studied. Private capital reached a 42% share in global deals with a 59% increase in value in 2025, with funds continuing to hold approximately $2 trillion in dry powder. Key trends identified include: "retailization" of private markets (expanding individual investors’ access to private investment strategies), increase in the median holding period to 6 years (50% more compared to the mid-2000s), emergence of new sources of capital (insurance companies, pension funds), and transformation of exit approaches through continuation funds and secondary transactions. The specifics of the Ukrainian M&A market, which operates under the unique conditions of full-scale war, were analyzed. It was found that the market is adapting through increased activity of domestic investors. The most attractive sectors in 2025 were the agricultural sector (28% of deals), logistics (22%), IT and telecom (20%), and construction (18%). It was revealed that 40% of Ukrainian business leaders plan at least one acquisition deal in the next three years, which corresponds to global sentiment. The potential of M&A as a powerful tool for attracting investment for post-war reconstruction and economic recovery of Ukraine is substantiated. Forecast indicators for the M&A market development for 2026–2028 were determined. Over 80% of investors from private equity and corporate investors expressed optimism about increasing the volume and value of deals. The global M&A volume is projected to increase to $3.5–4.0 trillion by 2028 while maintaining a high share of private capital (35–45%). The key growth drivers are interest rate reductions (85%), technological transformation (78%), and geopolitical reconfiguration (62%). The scientific novelty of the study lies in the systematization of modern M&A trends taking into account qualitatively new factors of 2025–2026, including the impact of artificial intelligence, K-shaped market dynamics, transformation of the role of private capital, and the specifics of the Ukrainian market in wartime conditions. The practical significance of the results lies in the possibility of their use by companies in developing M&A strategies, by investors in making investment decisions, and by government bodies in forming policies to stimulate investment activity.