A SYSTEM OF POLICY PROPOSALS DERIVED FROM ESTIMATED EQUATIONS: ARCHITECTURE AND EXPECTED EFFECT

Yurii Khrushch

doi:10.32782/mer.2026.110.06

Yurii Khrushch Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University https://orcid.org/0009-0003-1790-3855

DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/mer.2026.110.06

Keywords: macroeconomic policy, structural equations, post-conflict recovery, institutional capital, evidence-based policy, principal component analysis, economic forecasting

Abstract

The article develops a model-informed policy package for Ukraine’s post-conflict recovery. A matrix of marginal returns links five latent components to six macroeconomic indicators. Normalised aggregate returns determine the direction and relative size of annual component shifts, while estimated lags guide sequencing. The contribution is a transparent procedure connecting estimated equations, component priorities and policy proposals. Six measures combine digital settlement, service-export taxation, institutional safeguards, tax administration and regulatory alignment. Scenarios to 2031 indicate higher investment and an improved goods trade balance, but do not reverse the projected output contraction. Weak exchange-rate fit, a short Ukrainian sample and uncosted interventions limit interpretation. The package is a conditional scenario design, not a proven causal effect or a fully costed optimum. Results require monitoring and re-estimation as new observations become available.

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