ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY CAUSED BY THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a number of negative consequences for both Ukraine and the world economy in general. Among them is a significant humanitarian catastrophe, the growth of emigration, the impoverishment of the population, as well as the growth of the global food crisis. The purpose of the article is to analyze the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the world economy and outline the changes that occurred as a result of armed aggression in the system of international economic relations. To achieve the goal, the authors conducted a thorough analysis of current scientific publications and statistical data on the forecast of the level of inflation due to the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022 and 2023 by global regions; the arrival of world food from Ukraine and Russia in the pre-war period; compared food price indices for 2020-2022. It was determined that global food prices had risen even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains, but Russian aggression caused prices to rise to their highest levels in recent years. Although the value aspect is stabilizing, there is a threat of an intensification of the crisis due to the effect of sanctions against Russia, further destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine, relatively lower capacity of the grain corridor, uncertainty of Ukrainian farmers regarding further activities and lands unsuitable for growing crops due to the Russian invasion. The countries most dependent on wheat imports from Ukraine were identified, including African countries, Moldova, Pakistan, Israel, and others. In addition to the direct impact on agricultural production and exports, the war affects the trade in fertilizers and minerals (oil, gas). In addition, there is a need to build new logistics chains due to the closure of airspace and blocking of ports. The next negative trend in the world economy, caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war - fluctuations in energy prices is one of the key factors of changes in the world economy, in particular due to the fact that the export of energy goods makes up a much larger share of world trade than food. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent international response in the form of sanctions have caused another negative shock and disruption to the global economy, with immediate consequences for foreign direct investment (FDI) and other capital flows. The trends in the field of world tourism, which suffered significant losses due to the pandemic in 2020, as well as after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia on February 24, 2022, are studied.