METHODS OF EXPERT ESTIMATES AND FORECAST INDUSTRY SALES VOLUMES

Abstract

In the article the scientific and methodological tools produce forecasts sales of new products industry concrete manufacturers. It was determined that the assessment of the sales of building materials are mostly carried out on the basis of economic factors, without taking into account forecasts of replacement materials and production technology. It is proved that the development of breakthrough technologies, does not allow industrial companies to develop innovative marketing strategy for growth. It is proved that are insufficiently developed a new method for forecasting the sales of industrial enterprises with a narrow commodity nomenclature, which include manufacturers of concrete and concrete products. Two methods produce forecasts sales of new products: assessment of the various groups of experts, and predicted similar assessments. Define the target market for the segments. Proposed depending on the dynamics of historical data on sales of ready-mix concrete in the presence of a contract for the production of concrete using two forecasting methods: the multiplication of legal supplies to the seasonal uniform percentage and multiplying seasonal supplies to the seasonal concrete production index in the region.