UNEMPLOYMENT IN UKRAINE'S ECONOMY: COVID-19, WAR AND DIGITALIZATION

Abstract

The article examines unemployment trends in Ukraine in the long and medium term, taking into account the impact of pandemic COVID-19 in 2020-2021, the Ukrainian-Russian war in 2022, the factors of the domestic labor market in 2002-2019, as well as the prospects for post-war reconstruction and digitalization of the country's economy. Using methods of correlation and regression analysis, the authors identified factors of long-term influence on unemployment in the pre-pandemic period. These include the inflation index, the number of university graduates, the number of arrivals and departures, the average annual minimum wage, and the number of economically active population. The resulting model substantiates that an increase in the inflation index, the number of arrivals to Ukraine, and the minimum wage reduces the level of unemployment in the country. On the other hand, an increase in the number of graduates and departures increases unemployment. The influence of the number of economically active population on this indicator is controversial and requires further research. Based on the identified factors, measures to reduce unemployment in Ukraine are proposed. Having assessed the impact of lockouts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on employment, the dynamics of the unemployment rate in 2020-2021 was analyzed. It was substantiated that mass vaccination of Ukrainians against coronavirus disease and further reduction of COVID-19 incidence would help stabilize the labor market situation. However, in 2022 the invasion of the Russian Federation radically changed the government's priorities in the fight against unemployment. Therefore, this article analyzes current economic policies to stimulate employment and business recovery in Ukraine, as well as the potential macroeconomic consequences of military action. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war are identified as black swans that led to unpredictable changes in the labor market and accelerated the digitalization of the domestic economy. It is argued that the latter (in the sense of the development of artificial intelligence and quantum computers) will become another black swan in the long-term postwar period. On this basis, the main trends that will influence the Ukrainian labor market in the future (technological transformations, changes in economic and social models, increasing globalization, environmental changes) and the corresponding directions of digital transformations are analyzed.